THE STARFISH BAROMETER 2026 REFERENCES

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The following references provide the scientific foundation and data sources that underpin the analyses and findings presented in the 2026 Starfish Barometer. They include peer-reviewed articles, official datasets, and authoritative reports from leading research institutions and international organizations. Each reference is linked to its original source for further consultation.

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Ocean State
Global mean sea level rise and Ocean warming are accelerating.
Global sea ice extent reached its second lowest annual maximum at 32.1 million km2 since 1982.
  • Bliss, A. C., Comiso, J. C., Parkinson, C. L., Gersten, R., and Markus, T.: Current State of Sea Ice Cover, https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover (last access: 2 April 2026), 2025.
  • Hobbs, W., Spence, P., Meyer, A., Schroeter, S., Fraser, A. D., Reid, P., Tian, T. R., Wang, Z., Liniger, G., Doddridge, E. W., and Boyd, P. W.: Observational evidence for a regime shift in summer Antarctic sea ice, J. Climate, 37, 2263–2275, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0479.1, 2024.
  • Howell, S. E. L., Cabaj, A., Babb, D. G., Landy, J. C., Dawson, J., Mahmud, M., and Brady, M.: Near sea ice-free conditions in the northern route of the Northwest Passage at the end of the 2024 melt season, The Cryosphere, 19, 6711–6725, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6711-2025, 2025
  • IPCC: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964, 2019.
  • Meier, W. N., Petty, A., Hendricks, S., Bliss, A., Kaleschke, L., Divine, D., Farrell, S., Gerland, S., Perovich, D., Ricker, R., Tian-Kunze, X., and Webster, M.: NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025: Sea Ice, NOAA technical report OAR ARC 25-06 (Arctic Report Card), https://doi.org/10.25923/mmxf-0r86, 2025.
  • PAME – Arctic Shipping Status Report #1 (updated February 2026). https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/bitstreams/61870641-ba6a-4e1d-8e71-be201713a27f/download. Last access: 12 March 2026.
  • Roach, L. A. and Meier, W. N.: Sea ice in 2023, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 5, 235–237, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00542-0, 2024
  • von Schuckmann, K., Moreira, L., Grégoire, M., Marcos, M., Staneva, J., Brasseur, P., Garric, G., Lionello, P., Karstensen, J., and Neukermans, G. (Eds.): 8th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report (OSR8), Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 4-osr8, 10.5194/sp-4-osr8, 2024.
  • Walsh, J. E., Eicken, H., Redilla, K., and Johnson, M.: Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment, The Cryosphere, 16, 4617–4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4617-2022, 2022.
The number of threatened marine species has risen to 1685 with deterioration in conservation status.
  • IUCN: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: https://www.iucnredlist.org/en, last access: 2 April 2026.
  • Lévy, M., von Schuckmann, K., Vincent, P., Blanke, B., Claudet, J., Guillotreau, P., Hasson, A., Jolly, C., Shin, Y., Thébaud, O., Vincent, A., and Bahurel, P.: The 2025 Starfish Barometer, in: 9th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report (OSR9), edited by: von Schuckmann, K., Moreira, L., de Pascual Collar, Á., Grégoire, M., Brasseur, P., Garric, G., Karstensen, J., Lionello, P., Marcos, M., Poulain, P.-M., and Staneva, J., Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 6-osr9, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr91-2025, 2025.
84.4 % of coral reefs experienced heat stress severe enough to cause bleaching.
Human Pressures
Global shipping emissions remain stable, indicating limited decarbonisation progress.
67% of industrial fishing vessels in large coastal marine protected areas are untracked.
  • Dahms, C. and Killen, S. S.: Temperature change effects on marine fish range shifts: A meta-analysis of ecological and methodological predictors, Glob. Change Biol., 29, 4459–4479, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16770, 2023.
  • Paolo, F. S., Kroodsma, D., Raynor, J., Hochberg, T., Davis, P., Cleary, J., Marsaglia, L., Orofino, S., Thomas, C., and Halpin, P.: Satellite mapping reveals extensive industrial activity at sea, Nature, 625, 85–91, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-068258, 2024.
  • Pinsky, M. L., Selden, R. L., and Kitchel, Z. J.: Climate-driven shifts in marine species ranges: scaling from organisms to communities, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 12, 153–179, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010916, 2020.
  • Raynor, J., Orofino, S., Costello, C., McDonald, G., Mayorga, J., and Sala, E.: Little-to-no industrial fishing occurs in fully and highly protected marine areas, Science, 389, 392–395, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adt9009, 2025.
  • Seguin, R., Le Manach, F., Devillers, R., Velez, L., and Mouillot, D.: Global patterns and drivers of untracked industrial fishing in coastal marine protected areas, Science, 389, 396–401, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ado9468, 2025.
  • Sharma, R., Barange, M., Agostini, V., Barros, P., Gutierrez, N. L., Vasconcellos, M., Fernandez Reguera, D., Tiffay, C., and Levontin, P. (Eds.): Review of the state of world marine fishery resources – 2025, FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Papers, No. 721, Rome, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd5538en, 2025.
31 exploration contracts for deep-sea mineral resources are currently active.
A record 130 Mt of plastic waste was produced, with up to 10 % potentially reaching the Ocean.
Societal Harms

High economic losses from tropical storms and floods in 2024.
Geopolitical instability has increased maritime insurance costs to USD 39.9 billion.
Half of the social cost of climate change falls on the Ocean economy.
  • Bastien-Olvera, B. A., Aburto-Oropeza, O., Brander, L. M., Cheung, W. W., Emmerling, J., Free, C. M., Granella, F., Tavoni, M., Verschuur, J., and Ricke, K.: Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon, Nat. Clim. Chang., https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5, 2026.
  • World Bank: State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025, World Bank, Washington, DC, https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-2255-1, 2025.
8260 migrants lost their lives at sea.
  • IOM: Missing Migrants Project by International Organization for Migration, https://missingmigrants.iom.int/data, last access: 25 February 2026.
  • Maatouk, C., Germanos, O., Khattab, Y., Aad, A. M., Aboelhassam, Y. M. E. I., Gandour, G., Hafeez, H. S., Vicerra, P. M. M., Budhathoki, S. S., Lucas, D., and Canals, M. L.: Migration and health policy: Applying the nexus to safety issues of migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea, Public Health Chall., 4, e70023, https://doi.org/10.1002/puh2.70023, 2025.
  • Marine Protection Atlas: https://mpatlas.org, last access: 25 February 2026.
  • Yang, X., Chen, D., Wahab, I., and Burman, A.: Evidence of climate and economic drivers affecting migration in an unequal and warming world, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 782, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02811-2, 2025.
Protection efforts
Marine protected areas cover 10.01 % of the global Ocean, with 3.2 % fully or highly protected.
  • Barzuna, C., Haugan, P., Barbière, J., Swift, A., Khan, M., Ansong, J. O., James, P. A. S., Scherer, M., Thiele, T., von Schuckmann, K., Abramic, A., Barrowclough, D., Cisneros-Montemayor, A., Girón, A., Heaps, L., Koirala, S., Lyons, M., Paul, K., Priyanto, A. T., Randone, M., Rosado, S., Santos, C. F., Savoldelli, C., Spalding, A. K., Strand, M., Sumaila, U. R., Swaddling, A., Turner, J., Vestergaard, O., and Yulianto, I.: Handbook on Sustainable Ocean Plans: A practitioners' guide, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, https://oceanpanel.org/publication/sop-handbook/, 2025. Last access: 12 March 2026.

  • Horta e Costa, B., de Benito-Abelló, C., Pike, E., Turnbull, J., MacCarthy, J., Harasta, N., Fragkopoulou, E., Roessger, J., Sullivan-Stack, J., Grorud-Colvert, K., and Gill, D.: Marine protected areas stage of establishment and level of protection are good predictors of their conservation outcomes, Cell Rep. Sustain., 2, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100345, 2025.

  • Lévy, M., von Schuckmann, K., Vincent, P., Blanke, B., Claudet, J., Guillotreau, P., Hasson, A., Jolly, C., Shin, Y., Thébaud, O., Vincent, A., and Bahurel, P.: The 2025 Starfish Barometer, in: 9th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report (OSR9), edited by: von Schuckmann, K., Moreira, L., de Pascual Collar, Á., Grégoire, M., Brasseur, P., Garric, G., Karstensen, J., Lionello, P., Marcos, M., Poulain, P.-M., and Staneva, J., Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 6-osr9, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr91-2025, 2025.

  • Marine Protection Atlas: https://mpatlas.org, last access: 25 February 2026.

  • Protected Planet: Marine Protected Areas, Protected Planet, https://www.protectedplanet.net/en/thematic-areas/marine-protected-areas, last access: 25 February 2026.

Major in-situ Ocean observing systems are shrinking reducing Ocean protection capacity.
  • Boyer, T., Zhang, H., O'Brien, K., Reagan, J., Diggs, S., Freeman, E., Garcia, H., Heslop, E., Hogan, P., Huang, B., Jiang, L., Kozyr, A., Liu, C., Locarnini, R., Mishonov, A., Paver, C., Wang, Z., Zweng, M., Alin, S., Barbero, L., Barth, J., Belbeoch, M., Cebrian, J., Connell, K., Cowley, R., Dukhovskoy, D., Galbraith, N., Goni, G., Katz, F., Kramp, M., Kumar, A., Legler, D., Lumpkin, R., McMahon, C., Pierrot, D., Plueddemann, A., Smith, E., Sutton, A., Turpin, V., Jiang, L., Suneel, V., Wanninkhof, R., Weller, R., and Wong, A.: Effects of the Pandemic on Observing the Global Ocean, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E389–E410, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0210.1, 2023.

  • Gattuso, J.-P., Houllier, F., Adams, J., Amon, D., Bambridge, T., Cheung, W., Chiba, S., Cortés, J., Duarte, C. M., Frölicher, T., Gelcich, S., Gjerde, K., Greaves, D., Haugan, P. M., Li, D., and Tuda, A.: US federal cuts threaten international ocean science and diplomacy, Nature Ecology and Evolution, 9, 1079–1080, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02750-3, 2025.

  • GOOS: Global Ocean Observing System Status Report 2025, No. GOOS-310, https://www.ocean-ops.org/goosreport/#home, 2025.

  • Tanhua, T., Traon, P.-Y. L., Köstner, N., Eparkhina, D., Navarro, G., Dunbar, M. B., Speich, S., Pascual, A., von Schuckmann, K., Liguori, G., Karstensen, J., Hassoun, A. E. R., Doorn, E. van, Barceló-Llull, B., Gómez, B. P., Cusack, C., Heslop, E., Lara-Lopez, A., Petihakis, G., Telszewski, M., Palacz, A. P., Wilmer-Becker, K., Pearlman, J., Piniella, Á. M., Heymans, J. J., and Lips, I.: Towards a sustained and fit-for-purpose European ocean observing and forecasting system, Front. Mar. Sci., 11, 1394549, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1394549, 2024.

  • von Jackowski, A.: Navigating the current landscape of ocean observations: an overview from platform infrastructures to networks related to ocean time series, Front. Mar. Sci., 11, 1363863, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1363863, 2025.

Two international Ocean treaties have entered into force.
Stronger international protections for sharks and rays adopted.
Opportunities for Humanity
Global nutrition from fisheries increasingly relies on circular economy practices.
  • FAO FishStatJ: Software for Fishery and Aquaculture Statistical Time Series, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, https://www.fao.org/fishery/en/topic/166235/en, last access: 2 April 2026.

  • FAO SOFIA: Blue Transformation in action, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA) 2024, Rome, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd0683en, 2024.

  • Lévy, M., von Schuckmann, K., Vincent, P., Blanke, B., Claudet, J., Guillotreau, P., Hasson, A., Jolly, C., Shin, Y., Thébaud, O., Vincent, A., and Bahurel, P.: The 2025 Starfish Barometer, in: 9th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report (OSR9), edited by: von Schuckmann, K., Moreira, L., de Pascual Collar, Á., Grégoire, M., Brasseur, P., Garric, G., Karstensen, J., Lionello, P., Marcos, M., Poulain, P.-M., and Staneva, J., Copernicus Publications, State Planet, 6-osr9, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr91-2025, 2025.

Over 2000 startups drive Ocean innovations.
Ocean-focused impact investing is expanding.
The Ocean buffers climate change.
  • Forster, P. M., Smith, C., Walsh, T., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Aleluia Reis, L., Andrew, R. M., Betts, R. A., Borger, A., Broersma, J. A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Friedlingstein, P., Domingues, C. M., Gambarini, M., Gasser, T., Gütschow, J., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Krummel, P. B., Liné, A., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Naik, V., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Minx, J. C., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025.

  • Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H., Luijkx, I. T., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Aas, K., Alin, S. R., Anthoni, P., Barbero, L., Bates, N. R., Bellouin, N., Benoit-Cattin, A., Berghoff, C. F., Bernardello, R., Bopp, L., Brasika, I. B. M., Chamberlain, M. A., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Collier, N. O., Colligan, T. H., Cronin, M., Djeutchouang, L., Dou, X., Enright, M. P., Enyo, K., Erb, M., Evans, W., Feely, R. A., Feng, L., Ford, D. J., Foster, A., Fransner, F., Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gkritzalis, T., Goncalves De Souza, J., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Guenet, B., Gürses, Ö., Harrington, K., Harris, I., Heinke, J., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Ito, A., Jacobson, A. R., Jain, A. K., Jarníková, T., Jersild, A., Jiang, F., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Kong, Y., Korsbakken, J. I., Koven, C., Kunimitsu, T., Lan, X., Liu, J., Liu, Z., Liu, Z., Lo Monaco, C., Ma, L., Marland, G., McGuire, P. C., McKinley, G. A., Melton, J., Monacci, N., Monier, E., Morgan, E. J., Munro, D. R., Müller, J. D., Nakaoka, S.-I., Nayagam, L. R., Niwa, Y., Nutzel, T., Olsen, A., Omar, A. M., Pan, N., Pandey, S., Pierrot, D., Qin, Z., Regnier, P. A. G., Rehder, G., Resplandy, L., Roobaert, A., Rosan, T. M., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Skjelvan, I., Smallman, T. L., Spada, V., Sreeush, M. G., Sun, Q., Sutton, A. J., Sweeney, C., Swingedouw, D., Séférian, R., Takao, S., Tatebe, H., Tian, H., Tian, X., Tilbrook, B., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van Ooijen, E., van der Werf, G., van de Velde, S. J., Walker, A., Wanninkhof, R., Yang, X., Yuan, W., Yue, X., and Zeng, J.: Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-659, in review, 2025.

  • Li, C., Burger, F. A., Raible, C. C., and Frölicher, T. L.: Observed regional impacts of marine heatwaves on sea-air CO2 exchange, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL110379, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110379, 2024.

  • Müller, J. D., Gruber, N., Schneuwly, A., Bakker, D. C., Gehlen, M., Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., and McKinley, G. A.: Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023, Nat. Clim. Chang., 15, 978–985, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4, 2025.

  • von Schuckmann, K., Minière, A., Gues, F., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Kirchengast, G., Adusumilli, S., Straneo, F., Ablain, M., Allan, R. P., Barker, P. M., Beltrami, H., Blazquez, A., Boyer, T., Cheng, L., Church, J., Desbruyeres, D., Dolman, H., Domingues, C. M., García-García, A., Giglio, D., Gilson, J. E., Gorfer, M., Haimberger, L., Hakuba, M. Z., Hendricks, S., Hosoda, S., Johnson, G. C., Killick, R., King, B., Kolodziejczyk, N., Korosov, A., Krinner, G., Kuusela, M., Landerer, F. W., Langer, M., Lavergne, T., Lawrence, I., Li, Y., Lyman, J., Marti, F., Marzeion, B., Mayer, M., MacDougall, A. H., McDougall, T., Monselesan, D. P., Nitzbon, J., Otosaka, I., Peng, J., Purkey, S., Roemmich, D., Sato, K., Sato, K., Savita, A., Schweiger, A., Shepherd, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Simons, L., Slater, D. A., Slater, T., Steiner, A. K., Suga, T., Szekely, T., Thiery, W., Timmermans, M.-L., Vanderkelen, I., Wjiffels, S. E., Wu, T., and Zemp, M.: Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023.

  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO). State of the Global Climate 2025. (WMO-No. 1342). Geneva, 2026. ISBN: 978-92-63-11299-7. https://doi.org/10.59327/WMO/S/CRI/SOC1.

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